April 1, 2026

 

Australia's beef industry likely to see record production this year

 

 

The Australian beef industry is heading towards another year of record production in 2026, with Meat & Livestock Australia's annual Cattle Industry Projections forecasting slaughter to reach 9.45 million head, the highest since 1978.

 

The adult cattle slaughter estimate is slightly above last year's figure, which produced record annual beef export volumes.

 

While the 2026 Projections report captures much of the impact of recent rain in North and Central Australia, it was finalised just days into the Iran conflict that started on February 28, and some important supply and demand dynamics may have since changed. The Middle East events' potential impacts have not been incorporated into the current projection forecasts, MLA warned.

 

Any Iran impact is likely to be seen primarily on the demand side of the ledger, through higher fuel costs impacting consumers' disposable income. However it could also impact supply side features, such as higher fertiliser prices and the strong trend among Victorian and southern NSW beef processors to purchase large numbers of slaughter cattle out of Queensland to ship long distances south for processing.

 

That strategy, which adds to competition for northern cattle, may come under considerable pressure if fuel prices continue to spiral higher.

 

Despite these challenges, MLA's market information manager Stephen Bignell said producers were entering 2026 from a strong position.

 

"It is forecast that 9.45 million head of cattle will be processed in 2026, which would be the highest level recorded in almost half a century," Bignell said.

 

"This reflects strong global demand and solid production conditions across much of northern Australia."

 

The national herd is expected to remain above 30 million head, easing 1% to 30.78 million as higher slaughter is offset by widespread rain and improved northern growing conditions. By 2028, the herd is projected to decline by about 6% as the effects of sustained high turnoff flow through the system.

 

Average carcase weights are forecast to remain slightly subdued at around 307.5 kg, influenced by a larger proportion of grassfed cattle in the production sector as a result of the strong northern season. Carcase weights reached their high-point at 320 kg around 2022, during drought recovery.

 

MLA's latest outlook forecasts record beef production of 2.906 million tonnes carcase weight in 2026, with elevated slaughter and broad seasonal support in Queensland and the Northern Territory helping underpin national output.

 

Bignell said the production result highlighted the resilience of the industry.

 

"Even with slightly lighter carcase weights due to higher projected grassfed slaughter, the sector is positioned to deliver another beef production record," he said.

 

This would be the highest annual beef production on record at nearly 2.8 million tonnes set in 2025, a 4% increase year-on-year.

 

The strong fundamental drivers include continued processor demand, improved paddock conditions in many northern regions and ongoing productivity gains from genetics and herd management.

 

Recent flooding in northern Australia is also influencing the outlook, although the overall impact on the herd is expected to be positive. While floods inevitably result in some livestock losses, the scale of losses in current events appears smaller than those experienced in 2019. Importantly, the benefits of improved pasture growth and feed availability following widespread rainfall are likely to outweigh the immediate livestock losses.

 

Strong pasture growth across northern production regions will support higher carrying capacity and improved weight gain, reinforcing herd rebuilding in those areas.

 

While slaughter is expected to remain at historically high levels this year, it is projected to gradually ease in 2027 and 2028 as the herd contracts, representing a 13.3% change in 2028 compared to 2025.

 

Australian beef exports are projected to reach a record 2.3 million tonnes carcase weight in 2026, supported by record production and tight global supply.

 

Demand for lean, grassfed beef remains firm, with the United States continuing to experience reduced domestic supply. This is contributing to a greater turnoff of grassfed cattle in Australia, which in turn influences national carcase weights.

 

"It is important to note that these projections were consulted and written prior to the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East," Bignell said.

 

"However, Australia's beef markets are well diversified and there remains significant demand for Australian beef all over the world.

 

"We expect the conflict to influence input costs and logistics, and it is likely to affect exports to the region and global beef trade more broadly. MLA will continue to monitor market conditions and update settings as required."

 

For live export, higher Australian cattle prices at the end of 2025 softened the typical early‑year start to trade, and shifts in demand dynamics in key destinations such as Vietnam and Indonesia will remain important.

 

Despite these pressures, demand for affordable beef across the region remains stable and tightening local herds in importing countries may support ongoing trade.

 

Analyst forecasts point to a stable price outlook through the remainder of FY2026.

 

The National Young Cattle Indicator (NYCI) is forecast to rise 3% by June 30, while the feeder steer and heavy steer indicators are expected to move only modestly at +0.7% and -0.3% respectively.

 

Bignell said the coming years will be shaped by how the national herd responds to sustained high slaughter.

 

"Price movements across the major indicators are expected to remain steady. Modest shifts in the feeder and heavy steer indicators, combined with growth in the young cattle indicator, point to a market that is well supplied but still underpinned by firm global demand," he said.

 

"The herd will remain above 30 million head this year, which is a positive sign. We expect the herd to decline by about 6% by 2028 as the influence of consecutive high turnoff years becomes more evident."

 

Productivity gains will remain central to this outlook. Improvements in genetics, management practices and feeding systems are expected to continue supporting beef production, even as slaughter begins to ease.

 

"Processing capacity will also be a key factor in 2026," Bignell said.

 

"Strong international demand, record turn-off, and heavy carcase weights are expected to underpin another all-time high of beef production this year, keeping pressure on a supply chain already operating at high utilisation.

 

"In this environment, domestic supply chain disruptions will remain an important risk. Extreme weather events or international conflicts that affect key industry inputs have the potential to disrupt production, particularly when processing and logistics systems are operating close to capacity. International trade conditions will also remain critical to monitor," he said.

 

Export performance is expected to stay central to the outlook, meaning any change in global demand, market access, trade policy, or competitor activity will directly influence Australia's ability to maintain strong export volumes and values over the forecast period.

 

- Beef Central